Near All-time Low Homes
Still Cheaper Than 10 Years Ago
next-generation bomber built in Melbourne and next generation
rocket facilities being built in Merritt Island are having a major
boosting effect on Brevard's economy. For-Sale Inventory still
hovers near all-time lows, frustrating buyers and raising prices.
Single-Family prices are breaking out above the trendline. Single
Family prices are 198% above the bottom; condos are 168%
above the bottom.
Anticipating soaring inflation,
money is rushing to real estate. Florida has grown more than New
York, blessed by good weather and the best economy behind Texas.
Spurred by yet more government intervention,
interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages still provide an
unprecedented buying opportunity. Will higher mortgage rates make
ownership more, or less, affordable than today? Rises in interest
rates will drive up your monthly payments!. Home ownership will
get very costly as mortgages rise from today's artificially low
interest rates, then add price increases detailed later in this
a Realtor with market perspective to guide your
investment. Richard Webb at Coldwell Banker Paradise,
has bought and sold Brevard properties since 1997.
Call me. you can benefit from that experience.
Lock in that 30-year fixed rate mortgage NOW! Look at the
graph on right. Interest rates jumped 34% between April and
September 2013 and could easily do it again. Real inflation
is climbing as irresponsible government spending invades the rest
of the economy. But you can harness the destructive power of
inflation as it eats away the principal of your mortgage. Today,
the difference between your interest rate and the REAL inflation
rate (about 6%) is a
risk-free and tax-free return on investment never before seen
in the history of the world! (I checked)
The next major
crisis in real estate could be interest rates skyrocketing beyond
the 20% of the late 1970’s. You may not see interest rates this
low again in your lifetime. Lock in your price and mortgage NOW
while fixed-rate mortgages are still available!
We insiders know living on the
SpaceCoast is warm and relaxing! Now everyone else is discovering
the secret of favorable real estate prices in Central Florida.
This comprehensive monthly report shows you the investment
potential that accompanies owning property in Brevard County.
Brevard condo prices tend to
forecast single-family prices as shown in the following graphs.
Buyers are having difficulty
finding the home/condo they want, and pent-up demand increases as
buyers wait for the right abode to come on the market. Well-priced
homes get snapped up quickly, with multiple offers. Prices are
rising in response to lack of inventory. Bidding wars are common.
Strong sales kept inventory at low levels, accelerating the price
rise that started April 2010. Cash buyers (which indicate a strong
investor presence) now account for 40% of all Brevard sales, down
from 50% in early 2012. That is a positive trend as
owner-occupants rejoin the investors.
When in a Buyers
Market - BUY. The real
beneficiaries have been the smart buyers, buying while prices and
mortgage rates were even lower and everyone else was afraid to
interest rates, and a population moving to rentals, made
landlording feasible again. Brevard demand is driven by a
high-tech jobs base PLUS vacation/retirement homes for baby
boomers. Our embedded base of working renters makes Brevard a much
better investment than retiree-dominated communities.
is the most important indicator to watch!
beginning-of-month MLS inventory 1834 Single-Family down
to just 23%
of the high inventory in 2007!
down to just 19%
of the high inventory in 2007!
Inventory, or absorption rate, shows how many months of sales
it would take, at the current rate, to deplete the inventory. This
is the best indicator of where the future market is headed. Demand
has been so high that sales are postponed by lack of inventory.
Buyers are waiting to find what they like, with multiple offers
the first week on market.
Inventory now stands at a low 3.2 months of Single Family,
4.3 months of Condos
Permits Graph and Statistics (Housing Starts) Click this
title for our proprietary charts showing still-slow building
activity. Some builders seized an opportunity to get their crews
working and permits increased from a record low 35 per month in
November 2010, to a 5-year high of 141 in July 2013. We now
average 50. Click blue paragraph title to see recent trends.
Nicely crafted makeovers raised
prices in some resale segments (especially waterfront).
What is this home worth? These
graphs and charts reveal what's happened lately. If you'd like to
know why, see my Real Estate
eMagazine and call me for a discussion of solid economic
fundamentals powering the move to the SpaceCoast, and various
neighborhood lifestyles drawing people here.
Deal with a
knowledgeable Realtor who uses lots of great
information to benefit you.
Call Richard Webb at 321-480-5514
for buying/selling, essential market expertise,
recent updates to these numbers, and projections
of future trends.
Mortgage Interest Rate
Interactive graph from the Federal Reserve
I will help you get best rates!
More graphs below
If you appreciate this detailed research
Just call 321-480-5514
9AM to 10PM
The Best Information - Gives You a
Winning Edge. I
built these graphs to give us some perspective on market forces setting
the prices on homes, and to help our clients negotiate the best possible
deal. Call me. You need a negotiator that digs out the best
information and knows how to use it. These Brevard county-wide
residential sales, by fellow members of both Boards of Realtors, chart
the leading edge of Brevard's overall real estate market.
Note: The following numbers still include some distressed sales that
push the graph lower. Homes on navigable waterways sell higher than
distressed properties (mostly bank foreclosures) still push
average sales prices down. Do NOT infer that your home value has
decreased this much! Prices have been rising. Call or eMail
the "Webbmaster" for details.
Soaring sales, tight inventory,
Source Data: MLS.
Graphs updated mid-monthly
when data matures - approx 12th.
The most cautious investment
advisors with a track record of correct predictions in 2008 are
advising transition into hard assets -- commodities and real
estate. Real estate (which you control and enjoy) sure beats
gambling in the stock market - and you can't enjoy a stock
We sell details and additional insight to financial institutions.
Contact Richard Webb
show on these charts 30 to 90 days from the time the deal was
struck. See Buyer Activity Graph.
What is the average sale?Nominally, homes are the same
price as 10 years ago. But after REAL
inflation (not the manipulated one in the news) they are MUCH
cheaper and rising at a sustainable rate this time.. Prices
(still a bargain) rank far below other desirable markets and below the
national Median Prices,.
When Should I Buy/Sell?Single Family prices already
rebounded 200% from the low. Don't miss the rest of this buying
opportunity! Buyers get serious from early January till just before
school starts in late August. Timing can affect the price.
Pick Your Home
Averages are good for perspective, but can blur the picture. Focus on
categories of homes you're interested in, then call me for help finding
the specific one that fits your requirements.
Waterfront homes offer
the best appreciation potential. Unlike
continually expanding developments in former orange groves, they're not
making any more navigable waterfront. Including
all the islands, we have 230 miles of coastline, and that's it, so
prices get bid up faster on waterfront homes. In most areas we're seeing
neighborhoods upgrade as investor-refurbishers buy homes built in the
early days of the space program, and modernize them. Renovations push
values much higher.
establishing a beachhead for retirement, or beginning to move to
Florida, want high-end homes and condos. They appreciate faster than
blue-collar homes as a result.
Note: Some people
mistakenly try to use the Tax Appraiser's values as a guide to home
pricing. That will not work in Brevard. Neither the appraiser's Market
Value nor Assessed Value offers a predictable relationship to sales
prices as evidenced by my Appraiser Ratios
analysis (click to see).
Is Demand for Real Estate
Topped Out? See the price graphs
above. Retirees are still moving to Florida, now the2nd most populous
state ahead of New York. The baby boom started in 1946 -- add 65 years
and baby boomers (who for decades have dreamed of moving to Florida)
began to retire en masse in 2011. Many home shoppers plan ahead (a
characteristic that made them successful in the first place) and
purchase early.. Average condo sales prices bottomed out in September
2010, single-family sales prices bottomed out in March 2011.
Outlook Grumman won the largest
bomber contract in a decade adding 1,500 jobs in Melbourne to build
We still launch rockets.
Private manned launch preparations also keep us busy, but with 1/10 the
labor force, making us more internationally competitive. Jeff
Bezos Blue Origin is building a 500k sqFt rocket assembly facility. The
company is investing more than $200 million in local infrastructure and
plans to employ more than 300 people. The shuttle layoffs prompted
diversification into other hi-tech ventures that helped recovery.
Younger workers are returning. Older ones plan to retire here;
long-timers stayed because their house is mortgage-free and job
prospects were better than elsewhere.
Harris Corporation built
a $100 Million Hi-Tech Engineering Center. Bertram Yachts moved from
Miami to Merritt Island.
Another exciting $100
million cruise terminal completed in December 2014. Royal Caribbean's
Freedom of the Seas (world's largest cruise ship) now calls Canaveral
home. We previously built a $22million terminal for 2 new Disney
super-cruisers. Two new container cranes and a new 250,000sqFt
warehouses on US1 adjacent to TICO airport are in operation.
A new natural-gas power
plant rose in Port St John. Companies in Melbourne are desperately
looking for engineers. We replaced NASA jobs with private-sector
leadership in hi-tech industries.
Troubled Sales Abated
Condo Prices (see graph above) have
increased significantly since September 2010. Last winter, sales over
$500k were 5% of the market compared to 11% of the market 6 months
prior, while sales of units under 1,000 sqFt remained constant. Troubled
sales (short or lender-owned) have reduced to only 20% of Total Sales.
Contrary to what you read in the
press, we studied premium waterfront home sales and discovered
that on Indian River, Banana River and Newfound Harbor, prices have
yet to rise significantly, but volume is too low for much confidence in
Oceanfront is excluded here because prices overpower the data and skew
Government bail-outs induced
irresponsible lenders to give undeserved mortgages to irresponsible
buyers who could not, or would not, honor their commitments. It will
take awhile until the last foreclosures are out of the market, but banks
are no longer dumping inventory in high volume. Panicked sellers who
pushed the market down hard are gone. Now we are seeing a renewed upward
trend as retirees continue to move here. Take advantage while you
Our studies show homes
are still selling at 95% of asking price. When the asking price is set
realistically, a large number of homes have sold at full asking price or
above. Multiple offers on one home are common.
New Economics Did
you notice that the largest credit card issuers doubled their minimum
monthly payment a few years ago? That's one great way to curb
irrational exuberance -- a brilliant new monetary strategy. But the sudden
doubling triggered the mortgage crisis! Construction workers with
mortgages based on tenuous overtime wages could no longer pay their
credit cards and that triggered defaults on their no-down mortgage. The
doubling drastically cut consumer mis-spending, and was done with quiet
government approval; otherwise banks would have been in illegal
collusion. This was a revolutionary method of reducing borrowing in
precisely the sector that defaults on debt due to their irrational
exuberance. It was more effective than the Fed increasing reserve
requirements to curb lending. We watched its positive effect on lowering
inflation and interest rates, while the uninformed press whined about
negative effect on credit card borrowers and how consumers were not
spending enough. Meanwhile, jobs, wages and productivity (the only
worthwhile measures of an economy) got devastated in the ensuing crash.
Call Richard Webb, a fellow investor, for expert help selecting
properties with the highest total return in your portfolio. Sometimes
half of my buyers and sellers hold real estate licenses in Florida or
other states. I am a Realtor's Realtor backed by an office of 250
specially selected expert staff and agents in 8 offices of the Coldwell
Banker Paradise / Ed Schlitt Realtors team, the most respected
professionals on the Space and Treasure coast. We're everywhere you want
to be along the Indian River.
This article morphs slowly over time, but the statistics
are updated approximately the 12th of each month.
Contact the WEBBmaster for help finding the
perfect home or business location,and
Meet Richard Webb