July 2010 Report

 

Headlines:   Buying Activity at Highest Levels Since Sept '05

An amazing 29% of homes on MLS are under contract. This housing trends update shows buying activity is brisk.

Anticipating soaring inflation, smart money is rushing to real estate.  Home ownership could soon get very costly as mortgages rise from today's artificially low interest rates. Lock in that 30-year fixed rate mortgage NOW!

Don’t delay. Interest rates can only go up from here. Real inflation is climbing as bail-out costs work their way into the rest of the economy. Harness the destructive power of inflation as it eats away the principal of your mortgage.

When in a Buyers Market - BUY. The real beneficiaries have been the smart buyers, buying while prices and mortgage rates are still low and everyone else was afraid to buy.

Spurred by yet more government intervention, interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages now in the high 4% range provide an unprecedented buying opportunity, but by next quarter, rates could get nasty.

The next major crisis in real estate will be interest rates skyrocketing like they did in the late 1970’s. You may not see interest rates this low for the next 10 years or more. Lock in these rates NOW!

TAX CREDIT  The deadline has been extended to April 30, 2011, for members of the Uniformed Services, Foreign Service or employees of the Intelligence Community who have been on qualified extended duty outside the United States for at least 90 days between Jan. 1, 2009, and April 30, 2010. You can still cash in on the $6,500 tax credit that applies to most home buyers. It  even applies to vacation homes if you live there 6 months per year!  Even better, if you have not owned a home in the last 3 years, you can get up to $8,000 tax credit!.  Call 321-480-5514 for details.

Investors Low interest rates, and a population moving to rentals, is finally making landlording feasible again. Brevard demand is driven by a high-tech jobs base PLUS vacation/retirement homes for baby boomers. Our embedded base of working renters makes Brevard a much better investment than retiree-dominated communities.

Leading Housing Indicator The overall MLS inventory of unsold homes and condos declined thru March and prices actually INCREASED in January. But inventories are increasing again. These are the most important two numbers to watch!

July beginning-of-month MLS inventory totals rising.
       5085 Single-Family down to 36% of the highest inventory in 2007!
       1450 Condos           
down to 47% of the highest inventory in 2007!

Months of Inventory shows how many months of sales it would take, at the current rate, to deplete the inventory. This was an extremely healthy trend that led to firmer prices, then  a second buying opportunity developed when inventory rose, but as the headlines show, 29% of active homes already have contracts.


Excess new homes drove housing prices down. Our proprietary Building Permits Graph and Statistics (Housing Starts) shows still-low building activity. Brevard builders recognized an inventory buildup and severely reduced construction activity in August 2005.  Some builders seized an opportunity to get their crews working, permits increased from a low of 43 per month in April 2009, to 88 in May, a positive sign of stronger activity.

Nicely crafted makeovers tend to raise prices in some resale segments (especially waterfront).

What is this home worth? These graphs and charts reveal what's happened lately. If you'd like to know why, see my Real Estate eMagazine and call me for a discussion of solid economic fundamentals powering the move to the SpaceCoast, and various neighborhood lifestyles drawing people here.

 

 
Hot Markets Moving UpDeal with a knowledgeable Realtor who provides lots of great information.
Call Richard Webb at
321-480-5514 for essential market expertise, recent updates to these numbers, and projections of future trends.

Mortgage Rate Trends 

  Source: Bankrate.com 

The green line shows the Fed trying to force mortgage rates down by cutting the Discount Rate. The lid has begun to blow off.
 

More graphs below

transparent aqua arrow down gif

 

 

 

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The Best Information - Gives You a Winning Edge.  I built these graphs to give us some perspective on market forces setting the prices on homes, and to help our clients negotiate the best possible deal. These Brevard county-wide residential sales, by fellow members of the both Boards of Realtors, chart the leading edge of Brevard's overall real estate market.
Note: The following numbers include many distressed sales that push the chart lower. Homes on navigable waterways will perform higher than these averages.

When in a buyers market, smart people BUY

CAUTION: The major influence on average sale prices today is low-quality distressed properties (mostly bank foreclosures and short sales) pushing average sales prices down hard. Do NOT infer that your home value has decreased this much! Call or eMail the author for details.

What is the average sale?

We rank #115 in Median Prices, far below other desirable markets, and below the national average (still a bargain). 
Real estate (which you control and enjoy) sure beats gambling in the stock market - and you can't enjoy a stock certificate! 

Source Data: MLS. 
Graphs updated mid-monthly

 

Don't Miss the Bargains!

Prices usually rise from year-end average sales prices that drop as a reflection of Winter panic; expect December sales prices the lowest of the succeeding year.

Sales volume of units under 1,000 sqFt remained constant, but high-dollar sales (over $500k) were only 2.5% of the market. Average Condo Sale Price decreased because only the BEST condos can get financing.

Small volume of  100 condo sales a month countywide makes the above Condo Graph erratic.

.

Sales Beat Last Year!

Since July '08, monthly home sales show strengthening.

Condo sales increasing too.

______________

When should I Buy/Sell?

Buyers get serious from early January till just before school starts in late August. See Buyer Activity Graph.

Really astute buyers look for bargains during slow periods. Timing can affect the price. Expect Spring price increases.

Remember: settlements show on this chart 30 to 60 days from the time the deal was struck. See Buyer Activity Graph

Source Data: MLS. Graphs updated when data matures - approx 20th.

 


We sell details and additional data to financial institutions. Contact Richard Webb.

Pick Your Home Averages are good for perspective, but can blur the picture. Focus on categories of homes you're interested in, then call me for help finding the specific one that fits your requirements. We factor in date-sold in a way that enhances rather than confuses the analysis, and shows exactly what you should pay.

Waterfront homes offer the best appreciation potential. Unlike continually expanding developments in former cow pastures, they're not making any more navigable waterfront.  Including all the islands, we have 230 miles of coastline, and that's it, so prices get bid up faster on waterfront homes. In most areas we're seeing neighborhoods upgrade as investor-refurbishers buy homes built in the early days of the space program, and modernize them. Renovations push values higher.

Near-retirees establishing a beachhead for retirement, or beginning to move to Florida, want high-end homes and condos. They appreciate faster than blue-collar homes as a result.

Note: Some people mistakenly try to use the Tax Appraiser's values as a guide to home pricing. That will not work in Brevard. Neither the appraiser's Market Value nor Assessed Value offers predictable relationship to sales prices as evidenced by my Appraiser Ratios analysis (click to see).

Is Demand for Real Estate Ending? Not in Florida! Not when 37,000 people per year are moving to Florida, already the 4th most populous state. The baby boom started in 1946 -- add 65 years and we will begin seeing baby boomers (who for decades have dreamed of moving to Florida) retiring in 2011. Many current home shoppers are early retirees, and those who plan ahead (a characteristic that made them successful in the first place) are purchasing now.

Kiplinger's 13 riskiest housing markets were characterized by extremely high-end prices, reduced local employment, and people leaving. Brevard shares none of these characteristics.

Brevard Outlook NASA was preparing new facilities for Constellation, the next launch system after Shuttle. Click to watch an overview of our next bold step into space. We are building a $22million terminal for 2 new Disney super-cruisers, and Royal Caribbean's Freedom of the Seas (world's largest cruise ship) now calls Canaveral home. Companies in Melbourne are desperately looking for engineers.

The annual end-of-year dip in purchases was particularly harsh in '07 as buyers awaited the outcome of the vote on Amendment 1 that now makes the cost basis on "homesteads" portable to a new purchase. Floridians were "locked in" to their homes until portability passed.

Insiders know living on the SpaceCoast is fantastic! Now everyone else is discovering the secret about favorable real estate values in Central Florida. This comprehensive monthly report shows you the investment potential that accompanies owning property in Brevard County.

Investor Opportunity The Condo Prices (see graph above) showed spring average condo  sales prices up from a dismal winter. Last winter, sales over $500k were 5% of the market compared to 11% of the market 6 months prior, while sales of units under 1,000 sqFt remained constant. You can see average price graphs are pushed down by lack of high-end sales.

Contrary to what you read in the press, we studied premium waterfront home sales and discovered that on Indian River, Banana River and Newfound Harbor, 2008 sales prices and volume matched robust  '05 levels. The same pattern held true in Indian River County to our south.
Year Average Sale Price Number of Sales
2005 817,000 69
2006 895,000 32
2007 1,004,000 65
2008 839,000 63

Perspective  It will take awhile until all the panicked sellers are out of the market. Although some had to sell immediately and temporarily pushed the market down hard, many sellers are unwilling to drop prices in anticipation of a renewed upward trend as retirees move here.

Government bail-outs induced irresponsible lenders to give undeserved mortgages to irresponsible buyers who cannot, or will not, honor their commitments. Sales of those units are simultaneously pushing prices down. Take advantage while you can.

Our studies show homes are still selling at 95% of asking price. When the asking price is set realistically a large number of homes have sold at full asking price.

New Economics Did you notice that the largest credit card issuers doubled their minimum monthly payment a few years ago?  A brilliant new monetary strategy! That's one great way to curb inflation! It cuts consumer mis-spending, and it had to be done with quiet government approval; otherwise banks would have been in illegal collusion. This is a revolutionary method of reducing borrowing in precisely the sector that defaults on debt due to their irrational exuberance. It was more effective than the Fed increasing reserve requirements to curb lending. We'll be watching its positive effect on inflation and interest rates, while the press whines about negative effect on credit card borrowers and how consumers are not spending enough.

Investors Call Richard Webb, a fellow investor, for expert help selecting properties with the highest total return in your portfolio. Sometimes half of my buyers and sellers hold real estate licenses in Florida or other states. I am a Realtor's Realtor backed by an office of 90 specially selected expert agents in 7 offices of the Coldwell Banker Ed Schlitt Realtors team, the most respected professionals on the Space and Treasure coast. We're everywhere you want to be along the Indian River.

This article morphs slowly over time, but the statistics are updated approximately the 20th of each month.

Perspective: WATERFRONT Home & Condo Sales (MAAR)

Realtor's MLS system no longer produces these numbers                          Res = Single Family Residential   Att =Attached Condos/Townhomes.    Number is units sold.

2005 Prices thru Dec 31

2004 Prices 2003 Prices 2002 Prices
Indian River Res - 107 Att - 163
Avg. Sales Price $848,767 $439,889
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $337 $219

Banana River Res - 76 Att - 154
Avg. Sales Price $804,566 $354,495
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $311 $225

Sykes Creek Res - 48 Att - 7
Avg. Sales Price $510,414 $292,685
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $245 $173

Lakefront Res - 927 Att - 189
Avg. Sales Price $360,490 $228,977
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $168 $162

Ocean Front Res - 25 Att - 439
Avg. Sales Price $1,238,768 $482,233
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $476 $300

Newfound Harbor Res - 7 Att - 0
Avg. Sales Price $522,142 $0
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $231 $0

Canal - Navigable Res - 246 Att - 36
Avg. Sales Price $564,860 $332,790
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $265 $236

Canal - Drainage Res - 224 Att - 43
Avg. Sales Price $233,510 $152,152
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $137 $144

Other Res - 128 Att - 98
Avg. Sales Price $347,342 $254,200
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $188 $186
Indian River Res - 122 Att - 165
Avg. Sales Price $823,143 $337,290
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $278 $181

Banana River Res - 80 Att - 155
Avg. Sales Price $743,230 $265,438
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $246 $180

Sykes Creek Res - 60 Att - 7
Avg. Sales Price $386,377 $238,750
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $203 $179

Lakefront Res - 905 Att - 158
Avg. Sales Price $286,032 $181,525
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $132 $130

Ocean Front Res - 34 Att - 558
Avg. Sales Price $1,194,367 $382,848
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $411 $243

Newfound Harbor Res - 12 Att - 3
Avg. Sales Price $570,758 $257,333
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $233 $152

Canal - Navigable Res - 273 Att - 46
Avg. Sales Price $453,105 $234,013
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $212 $163

Canal - Drainage Res - 199 Att - 5
Avg. Sales Price $165,491 $150,660
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $101 $108

Other Res - 185 Att - 125
Avg. Sales Price $264,243 $161,941
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $136 $142
Indian River Res - 95 Att - 125
Avg. Sales Price $487,523 $161,857
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $197 $118

Banana River Res - 83 Att - 135
Avg. Sales Price $487,976 $194,774
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $208 $138

Sykes Creek Res - 49 Att - 5
Avg. Sales Price $289,696 $232,910
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $147 $123

Lakefront Res - 789 Att - 129
Avg. Sales Price $222,568 $138,772
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $106 $99

Ocean Front Res - 33 Att - 608
Avg. Sales Price $939,863 $287,442
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $327 $184

Newfound Harbor Res - 12 Att - 2
Avg. Sales Price $445,925 $168,500
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $161 $113

Canal - Navigable Res - 250 Att - 40
Avg. Sales Price $338,717 $173,502
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $165 $123

Canal - Drainage Res - 150 Att - 3
Avg. Sales Price $136,917 $189,500
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $83 $106

Pond Res - 120 Att - 72
Avg. Sales Price $182,283 $124,752
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $102 $103
Indian River Res - 84 Att - 92
Avg. Sales Price $489,396 $128,919
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $172 $98

Banana River Res - 69 Att - 110
Avg. Sales Price $442,564 $153,590
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $177 $112

Sykes Creek Res - 41 Att - 14
Avg. Sales Price $262,102 $187,878
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $140 $99

Lakefront Res - 554 Att - 117
Avg. Sales Price $207,705 $118,066
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $98 $80

Ocean Front Res - 27 Att - 539
Avg. Sales Price $679,144 $243,343
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $252 $150

Newfound Harbor Res - 7 Att - 6
Avg. Sales Price $355,628 $172,233
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $132 $102

x
Canal - Navigable Res - 240 Att - 39
Avg. Sales Price $289,902 $168,012
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $138 $113

Canal - Drainage Res - 100 Att - 3
Avg. Sales Price $122,453 $65,833
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $74 $69

Pond Res - 39 Att - 34
Avg. Sales Price $217,962 $138,032
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $102 $102
Source:  Melbourne Florida Area Association of Realtors (MAAR) Annual MLS Sold Statistics Report  - Waterfront

 

ALL Home & Condo Sales (MAAR)

 

2005 Prices thru July 15 2005 2004 Prices 2003 Prices 2002 Prices
Total Sales - 6152 units
2 BR 281 Avg. Sales Price $183,538
3 BR 3062 Avg. Sales Price $233,360
4 BR 1215 Avg. Sales Price $340,036
Condos 1432 Avg. Sales Price $274,008

Compared to 2004: Reflects a 43% increase in
overall sales with average sales
prices increasing by 27 %

Time on Market of Units Sold
Days #S/Fam #Condo
 
1-30 441 139
31-60 1886 477
61-90 1170 309
120+ 592 190
91-120 616 309

Residential with in-ground pool - 1179
Avg. Sales Price $380,070
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $179

Golf Course Res - 112 Att - 60
Avg. Sales Price $345,080 $211,710
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $157 $154

1 Acre + Res - 259 Att - 23
Avg. Sales Price $476,957 $491,578
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $188 $206

Total Sales - 10794 units
2 BR 556 Avg. Sales Price $123,928
3 BR 5340 Avg. Sales Price $177,624
4 BR 2164 Avg. Sales Price $283,520
Condos 2425 Avg. Sales Price $212,865

Compared to 2003: Reflects a 7 % increase in
overall sales with average sales
prices increasing by 28 %

Time on Market of Units Sold
Days #S/Fam #Condo
 
1-30 873 291
31-60 3369 893
61-90 1863 470
120+ 980 239
91-120 1249 525

Residential with in-ground pool - 2046
Avg. Sales Price $316,224
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $147

Golf Course Res - 150 Att - 111
Avg. Sales Price $280,893 $170,202
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $127 $119

1 Acre + Res - 490 Att - 52
Avg. Sales Price $378,262 $378,403
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $152 $187

Total Sales - 10046 units
2 BR 533 Avg. Sales Price $99,220
3 BR 4940 Avg. Sales Price $141,778
4 BR 1963 Avg. Sales Price $229,619
Condos 2405 Avg. Sales Price $160,301

Compared to 2002: Reflects an 18% increase in
overall sales with average sales
prices increasing by 15 %

Time on Market of Units Sold
Days #S/Fam #Condo
 
1-30 579 188
31-60 2470 781
61-90 1816 522
91-120 1056 299
120+ 1687 600

Residential with in-ground pool - 2011
Avg. Sales Price $239,111
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $115

Golf Course Res - 141 Att - 108
Avg. Sales Price $246,806 $125,026
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $107 $91

1 Acre + Res - 477 Att - 16
Avg. Sales Price $259,891 $216,012
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $113 $141

Total Sales - 8508 units
2 BR 494 Avg. Sale $78,348
3 BR 4221 Avg. Sale $124,505
4 BR 1576 Avg. Sale $205,535
Condos 2052 Avg. Sale $137,313

Versus 2001: Reflects a 10 % increase in
overall sales with average sales
prices increasing by 16 %

Time on Market of Units Sold
Days #S/Fam #Condo
1-30 554 215
31-60 2031 686
61-90 1487 421
91-120 868 249
120+ 1505 478

Residential with in-ground pool - 1787
Avg. Sales Price $214,156
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $102

Golf Course Res - 141 Att - 87
Avg. Sales Price $200,255 $110,471
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $92 $78

1 Acre + Res - 384 Att - 0
Avg. Sales Price $229,470
Sales Price per/sq.ft. $99

Source:  Melbourne Florida Area Association of Realtors (MAAR) Annual MLS Sold Statistics Report - All Areas
Res= residential   Att=attached condos/townhomes.  Number is units sold by MAAR members.
Note: Sales may be skewed toward south and central Brevard, and new construction.
Coldwell Banker Ed Schlitt Realtors

 

Brevard Coldwell Banker Real EstateCocoa Beach area Realtor

Contact Coldwell Banker RealtorContact the WEBBmaster for updated details, and help finding the perfect home or business location.  About Richard Webb

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