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January 2010 Report |
Headlines: NEW $6,500 TAX CREDIT
APPLIES TO MOST BUYERS!
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backlog of homes is quickly disappearing, and by the laws of
supply and demand, will cause prices to rise. Wait any longer, and
you'll only get the leftovers.
Anticipating soaring inflation,
smart money is rushing to real estate. Home ownership could
soon get very costly as mortgages rise from today's artificially
low interest rates. Lock in that 30-year fixed rate mortgage
NOW!
Don’t delay. Interest rates
can only go up from here. Inflation is soaring with bail-out costs
working their way into the rest of the economy. Harness the
destructive power of inflation as it eats away the principal of
your mortgage.
When in a Buyers
Market - BUY. The real
beneficiaries have been the smart buyers, buying while prices and
mortgage rates are still low and everyone else was afraid to buy.
Spurred by yet more government
intervention, interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages now
in the low 5% range provide an unprecedented buying opportunity,
but by next month, rates could get nasty.
The next major
crisis in real estate will be interest rates skyrocketing like
they did in the late 1970’s. You may not see interest rates this
low for the next 10 years or more. Lock in these rates NOW!
TAX
CREDIT You have till
April 30 to cash in on a new $6,500 tax credit that applies
to most home buyers. It even applies to vacation homes if
you live there 6 months/yr! Even better, if you have not
owned a home in the last 3 years, you can get up to $8,000 tax
credit!. Call 321-480-5514 for details.
Investors Low
interest rates, and a population moving to rentals, is finally
making landlording feasible again. Brevard demand is driven by a
high-tech jobs base PLUS vacation/retirement homes for baby
boomers. Our embedded base of working renters makes Brevard a much
better investment than retiree-dominated communities.
Leading Housing
Indicator Here's the best
news... As we predicted a year ago, the overall MLS
inventory of unsold homes and condos continues to
decline. Hurray! These are the most important two numbers
to watch!
January
beginning-of-month MLS inventory totals
fluctuating.
4654 Single-Family
down 70% from the
highest inventory!
1440 Condos down 91
% from the highest inventory in 2007! |
Months of Inventory
shows how many months of sales it would take, at the current rate,
to deplete the inventory. This is an extremely healthy trend, and
indicates Brevard could lead the real estate recovery.

Excess inventories
of homes drove housing prices down. Our proprietary Building
Permits Graph and Statistics (Housing Starts) shows no
resurgence of new-home glut. Brevard builders recognized an
inventory buildup and severely reduced construction activity long
ago. Some builders are seizing this opportunity to get their
crews working, permits increased from a low of 43 per month in
April '09, to 82 this month, a positive sign of stronger
activity.
Nicely crafted makeovers tend to
raise prices in some resale segments (especially waterfront).
What is this home worth? These
graphs and charts reveal what's happened lately. If you'd like to
know why, see my Real Estate
eMagazine and call me for a discussion of solid economic
fundamentals powering the move to the SpaceCoast, and various
neighborhood lifestyles drawing people here.
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More graphs below

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The Best Information - Gives You a
Winning Edge. I
built these graphs to give us some perspective on market forces setting
the prices on homes, and to help our clients negotiate the best possible
deal. These Brevard county-wide residential sales, by fellow members of
the both Boards of Realtors, chart the leading edge of Brevard's overall
real estate market.
Note: The following numbers include many distressed sales that pull the
chart lower. Homes on navigable waterways will perform higher than these
averages.
When in a buyers market, smart
people BUY
CAUTION: The major influence on
average sale prices today is low-quality distressed properties
(mostly bank foreclosures and short sales) pushing average sales
prices down hard. Do NOT infer that your home value has decreased
this much! Call or eMail
the author for details.
What
is the average sale?
We rank #115 in Median Prices,
far below other desirable markets, and below the national average
(still a bargain).
Real estate (which you control and enjoy) sure beats gambling in
the stock market - and you can't enjoy a stock certificate!
Source Data: MLS.
Graphs updated mid-monthly
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Don't
Miss the Bargains!
Year-end average sales prices
usually drop as a reflection of Winter panic with December sales
prices the lowest of the succeeding year.
Sales volume of units under
1,000 sqFt remained constant, but high-dollar sales (over $500k)
were only 2.5% of the market. Average Condo Sale Price decreased
because only the BEST condos can get financing.
Small volume of 100 condo
sales a month countywide makes the above Condo Graph erratic.
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Sales Beat Last Year!
Since July '08.monthly home
sales beat the prior year in all but one month.
Condo sales leveled because only
the best ones can get financing due to inept federal lending
rules.
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When should I Buy/Sell?
Buyers get serious from early
January till just before school starts in late August. See Buyer
Activity Graph.
Really astute buyers look for
bargains during slow periods. Timing can affect the price. Expect
Spring price increases.
Remember: settlements show on
this chart 30 to 60 days from the time the deal was struck. See Buyer
Activity Graph.
Source Data: MLS. Graphs updated when data matures
- approx 20th.
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Pick Your Home
Averages are good for perspective, but can blur the picture. Focus on
categories of homes you're interested in, then call me for help finding
the specific one that fits your requirements. We factor in date-sold in
a way that enhances rather than confuses the analysis, and shows exactly
what you should pay.
Waterfront homes offer
the best appreciation potential. Unlike
continually expanding developments in former cow pastures, they're not
making any more navigable waterfront. Including
all the islands, we have 230 miles of coastline, and that's it, so
prices get bid up faster on waterfront homes. In most areas we're seeing
neighborhoods upgrade as investor-refurbishers buy homes built in the
early days of the space program, and modernize them. Renovations push
values higher.
Near-retirees
establishing a beachhead for retirement, or beginning to move to
Florida, want high-end homes and condos. They appreciate faster than
blue-collar homes as a result.
Note: Some people
mistakenly try to use the Tax Appraiser's values as a guide to home
pricing. That will not work in Brevard. Neither the appraiser's Market
Value nor Assessed Value offers predictable relationship to sales prices
as evidenced by my Appraiser Ratios
analysis (click to see).
Is Demand for Real Estate
Ending? Not in Florida! Not when
37,000 people per year are moving to Florida, already the 4th most
populous state. The baby boom started in 1946 -- add 65 years and we
will begin seeing baby boomers (who for decades have dreamed of moving
to Florida) retiring in 2011. Many current home shoppers are early
retirees, and those who plan ahead (a characteristic that made them
successful in the first place) are purchasing now.
Kiplinger's 13 riskiest
housing markets were characterized by extremely high-end prices, reduced
local employment, and people leaving. Brevard shares none of these
characteristics.
Brevard Outlook As
we replace the shuttle program, NASA is preparing new facilities
for Constellation,
the next launch system after Shuttle. Click
to watch an overview of our next bold step into space. We are building a
$22million terminal for 2 new Disney super-cruisers, and Royal Caribbean
will bring Freedom of the Seas here in 2009. Companies in Melbourne are
desperately looking for engineers.
The annual
end-of-year dip in purchases was particularly harsh in '07 as buyers
awaited the outcome of the vote on Amendment 1 that now makes the cost
basis on "homesteads" portable to a new purchase. Floridians
were "locked in" to their homes until portability passed.
Insiders know living on the
SpaceCoast is fantastic! Now everyone else is discovering the secret
about favorable real estate values in Central Florida. This
comprehensive monthly report shows you the investment potential that
accompanies owning property in Brevard County.
Investor
Opportunity The
Condo Prices (see graph above) showed spring average condo sales
prices up from a dismal winter. Last winter, sales over $500k were 5% of
the market compared to 11% of the market 6 months prior, while sales of
units under 1,000 sqFt remained constant. You can see average price
graphs are pushed down by lack of high-end sales.
Contrary to what you read in the
press, we studied premium waterfront home sales and discovered that on
Indian River, Banana River and Newfound Harbor, 2008 sales prices
and volume matched robust '05 levels. The same pattern held true
in Indian River County to our south.
| Year |
Average Sale Price |
Number of Sales |
| 2005 |
817,000 |
69 |
| 2006 |
895,000 |
32 |
| 2007 |
1,004,000 |
65 |
| 2008 |
839,000 |
63 |
Perspective
It will take awhile until all the panicked sellers
are out of the market. Although some had to sell immediately and
temporarily pushed the market down hard, many sellers are unwilling to
drop prices in anticipation of a renewed upward trend as retirees move
here.
Government bail-outs
induced irresponsible lenders to give undeserved mortgages to
irresponsible buyers who cannot, or will not, honor their commitments.
Sales of those units are simultaneously pushing prices down. Take
advantage while you can.
Our studies show homes
are still selling at 95% of asking price. When the asking price is set
realistically a large number of homes have sold at full asking price.
New Economics Did
you notice that the largest credit card issuers doubled their minimum
monthly payment a few years ago? A brilliant new monetary
strategy! That's one great way to curb inflation! It cuts consumer mis-spending,
and it had to be done with quiet government approval; otherwise banks
would have been in illegal collusion. This is a revolutionary method of
reducing borrowing in precisely the sector that defaults on debt due to
their irrational exuberance. It was more effective than the Fed
increasing reserve requirements to curb lending. We'll be watching its
positive effect on inflation and interest rates, while the press whines
about negative effect on credit card borrowers and how consumers are not
spending enough.
Investors
Call Richard Webb, a fellow investor, for expert help selecting
properties with the highest total return in your portfolio. Sometimes
half of my buyers and sellers hold real estate licenses in Florida or
other states. I am a Realtor's Realtor backed by an office of 90
specially selected expert agents in 7 offices of the Coldwell Banker Ed
Schlitt Realtors team, the most respected professionals on the Space and
Treasure coast. We're everywhere you want to be along the Indian River.
This article morphs slowly over time, but the statistics
are updated approximately the 20th of each month. |