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Anticipating soaring inflation, smart money is
rushing to real estate. In March, sales hit their highest volume in 7
months. Locking in low
interest rates, and a population moving to rentals, is finally making
landlording feasible again. Home ownership will soon get very costly as
mortgages rise from today's artificially low interest rates. Lock in that
30-year fixed rate mortgage NOW! Brevard demand is driven by vacation/retirement homes for baby
boomers PLUS a
high-tech jobs base.
Our embedded base of working renters makes Brevard a much better investment than retiree-dominated
communities.
As we replace the
shuttle program, NASA is preparing new facilities for Constellation,
the next launch system after Shuttle. Click to watch an overview of our next bold step
into space.
The annual end-of-year dip in purchases was
particularly harsh this year as buyers awaited the outcome of the Jan 29 vote on
Amendment 1 that makes the cost basis on "homesteads" portable to a new
purchase. Floridians were "locked in" to their homes until portability
passed. Year-end sales activity was dismal, but January/February buyers have
phones ringing off the hook. Watch for a surge in spring closings.
We insiders
know living on the SpaceCoast is fantastic! Now everyone else is discovering
the secret about favorable real estate values in Central Florida. This comprehensive
monthly report shows you the investment
potential that accompanies owning property in Brevard County.
December average sales prices usually drop as a reflection of
Winter panic. The Condo Prices graph (see below) shows condo average sales prices
down because sales over $500k are 5% of today's market compared to 11% of the
market 6 months ago, while sales of units under 1,000 sqFt remained constant.
Compare to an upward price spike in June due to an extraordinary 16 condos that sold
in excess of $500k, two of them in excess of $1.5mil. August
saw a similar, but less significant, up-spike. Contrary
to what you read in the press, we studied premium waterfront home sales and discovered that on Indian River, Banana River and
Newfound Harbor, sales prices are still rising and volume matched
robust '05 levels.
The same pattern holds true in Indian River County to our south.
| Year |
Average Sale Price |
Number of Sales |
| 2005 |
817,000 |
69 |
| 2006 |
895,000 |
32 |
| 2007 |
1,004,000 |
65 |
Perspective
It will take awhile until all the
panicked sellers are out of the
market. Although
some had to sell immediately and temporarily pushed the market down hard, many sellers are unwilling to drop prices in anticipation of a renewed upward
trend.
Government bail-outs induced irresponsible
lenders to give undeserved mortgages to
irresponsible buyers who cannot, or will not, honor their commitments. Sales of
those units are simultaneously pushing prices down.
Our stats show homes are still selling at 95% of asking price. When
the asking price is set realistically a large number of homes have sold at full
asking price.
Leading Housing Indicator Excess inventories of new homes drove Brevard
prices since July '05 and remain a dominant force in today's market,
followed closely by "short sales". Our proprietary Building Permits
Graph and Statistics (Housing Starts) says the end of the
new-home glut is in sight.
Brevard builders recognized an inventory buildup and
began severely reducing construction activity in June '05. Permits declined
from a peak of 1066 per month in June '05, to less than 150 in recent months, therefore finished inventories are declining
but some builders are seizing an opportunity to get back into action.
For now, new completions continue to enter the Brevard market and keep new-home prices down. While
adding to that oversupply,
a few makeovers tend to raise some resale
segments (especially waterfront) significantly.
We've been amazed at the strength of the market in the
face of large inventories and some desperate sellers. Prices of single family homes remained surprisingly high in spite of For-Sale inventories five times
greater than
at the peak buying frenzy - but here's the good news...
As we predicted, the MLS inventory of unsold homes and condos
continues to decline. Yea!
March end-of-month MLS inventories rose
far less than the expected immediate increase from the portability
amendment.
7175 Single-Family down 10%
from the highest inventory
2180 Condos down 26% from the
highest inventory |
A total of 3,000 would be in balance. Since
January 1 we
are back in the buying/selling season - this is when prices seasonally start to rise.
When in a Buyers Market - BUY.
The real beneficiaries have been the smart buyers, buying while prices and mortgage rates
are low and everyone
else was afraid to buy.
Spurred by yet more government intervention, interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages still hover
around 6%
range providing an unprecedented buying opportunity. Hottest Markets
After three years in the top ten, Brevard county's 2005 ranking finished fifth hottest in the
country; our ranking for 2007 fell to bottom five. The good news is that there
are now 76 market areas more expensive than Brevard, so Brevard affordability is
much more reasonable than theirs. House Price Index
(federal measure of repeat mortgage appraisals of homes under $417k) Brevard
appreciated 71% over the
last 5 years. For 2007 however, we were down 11.36%
Brevard #1 in Job Gains
Miliken Institute's Best
Performing Cities Index said Brevard topped its list where components measure job, wage and salary, and technology growth.
High-tech and
construction jobs lead gainers. This assures continued strong housing demand.
What
is this home worth? These graphs and charts reveal what's
happened lately, by type of home. If you'd like to know why, see my Real Estate
eMagazine for a discussion of solid economic fundamentals powering the rush to the
SpaceCoast, and various neighborhood lifestyles drawing people here.
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